Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 24.169326 28.487676 33.778421 40.885788 50.427850 63.185225 82.274389
2025-02-02 19.958375 25.251915 32.511441 43.707942 61.637297 91.666333 152.988564
2025-02-09 16.335196 21.436617 28.865008 41.256487 63.377305 106.640382 220.355441
2025-02-16 14.796564 20.091952 28.257523 42.991122 72.527961 141.834524 401.050282
2025-02-23 13.312821 18.514083 26.868780 42.847710 77.942685 174.364314 699.934774
2025-03-02 12.133020 17.203677 25.627198 42.555589 82.892626 212.139567 1335.686692
2025-03-09 11.311112 16.340061 24.972555 43.204054 90.531497 271.621107 3632.601656
2025-03-16 10.294017 15.024554 23.294511 41.262055 90.333851 300.818787 8492.463250
2025-03-23 9.654142 14.275090 22.543779 41.181765 95.677779 371.646238 103567.191703
2025-03-30 8.850366 13.163605 20.963758 38.846629 92.855483 390.506277 NaN
2025-04-06 8.098735 12.084660 19.335149 36.115715 87.730915 386.668441 NaN
2025-04-13 7.498579 11.231343 18.067851 34.067037 84.360258 393.922783 NaN
2025-04-20 7.710757 11.868548 19.874279 40.244686 116.364435 950.598569 NaN
2025-04-27 7.557722 11.822764 20.286627 42.983151 138.392536 1927.154023 NaN
2025-05-04 7.032360 11.030977 19.006898 40.589895 133.259718 2084.499866 NaN
2025-05-11 6.849521 10.876384 19.096474 42.283103 152.336120 4720.794613 NaN
2025-05-18 6.559830 10.490727 18.624352 42.143144 160.996747 9136.493120 NaN
2025-05-25 6.287046 10.117710 18.139655 41.858041 168.914490 21477.955215 NaN
2025-06-01 6.090910 9.881531 17.944035 42.490897 184.892103 223509.409750 NaN
2025-06-08 5.769033 9.373204 17.061112 40.595315 179.215690 574986.974020 NaN
2025-06-15 5.570335 9.101362 16.715769 40.516923 189.321051 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 5.269311 8.606063 15.795917 38.236227 177.921948 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 4.963942 8.089975 14.797831 35.567084 161.911665 NaN NaN